US PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s climb-down from his 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz should come as no surprise. His persistent inconsistency makes such reversals unsurprising. His claims of “very strong talks” with Iran have been firmly denied by Tehran. He extended the deadline by another five days, hoping Iran would yield. However, there is no indication that the Islamic Republic — having endured more than three weeks of devastating strikes by the US in coordination with Israel — is prepared to surrender.
Trump’s latest claim that the US and Iran are negotiating a “total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East” may have briefly eased international oil and gas prices. Still, it lacks plausibility given that hostilities have not ceased. Mere exchanges of messages between Tehran and Washington through a third country cannot be construed as serious negotiations.
Despite the decapitation of its leadership and widespread devastation, there is no indication that Iran is prepared to capitulate — contrary to what Trump’s statement suggests. Iran has also made it clear that it will not enter into negotiations unless the US administration agrees to a complete ceasefire. Trump’s claim about negotiations is viewed as an attempt to cover up US preparations for a possible ground operation.
While Trump announced a postponement of his deadline, more American troops were being deployed in the region. Israel continued to extend its war into Lebanon. There has certainly been an effort by some regional countries, including Pakistan, to push for peace talks. However, no breakthrough appears likely, given the wide gap in negotiating positions between Tehran and Washington.
There cannot be any meaningful talks under the shadow of war.
Backchannel efforts cannot be interpreted as formal talks. While Iran has acknowledged the “regional initiative” aimed at reducing tension, there is no concrete framework of structured talks as yet. The five-day extension of the deadline is not a move towards de-escalation. There cannot be any meaningful talks under the shadow of war.
While Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has tweeted that Islamabad stands ready to serve as a host for talks, subject to American and Iranian acceptance, Pakistan’s role as messenger should not be overstretched. A number of foreign reports had suggested Islamabad as a potential venue for peace talks and were widely amplified on social media at home. Western media reports about the US president calling Pakistan’s army chief are indeed significant. However, should this be construed as Islamabad — which has good relations with both Tehran and Washington — taking centre stage in efforts to resolve such a complex conflict? While Pakistan maintains good relations with both the US and Iran, it is questionable whether its efforts can achieve a breakthrough.
Trump’s latest suggestion — that the US and Iran could jointly control the Strait of Hormuz — is little more than a figment of his imagination. Despite the massive use of air power over the past three weeks, the US has failed to compel Iran to reopen the critical waterway that accounts for more than 20 per cent of global oil supplies, pushing the world towards one of the worst economic catastrophes in decades — potentially surpassing the combined impact of the oil crises of 1973 and 1979.
This unfolding crisis partly explains Trump’s decision to back down from his ultimatum. A prolonged war would not only carry long-term economic and geopolitical consequences for America’s allies but also for the country itself. Now in its fourth week, the conflict has so far failed to achieve any of Trump’s ever-changing objectives. His aspiration for regime change has not materialised despite a relentless decapitation campaign targeting Iran’s political and military leadership. If anything, the war appears to have further united the country.
Notwithstanding Trump’s claims of destroying Iran’s military capability, Iran has continued to strike Israel and US military bases in the Gulf countries. Last week’s strike near Israel’s key nuclear facility at Dimona — reportedly evading sophisticated air defence systems — has shaken the country. The attack has been described as one of the most dramatic escalations in the US-Israel war on Iran.
It suggests that while Iran’s military capability may have been degraded, it has certainly not been obliterated, as claimed by Trump. Iran’s low-cost drones and missiles continue to test America’s regional allies, which are bearing much of the burden of the conflict. Even the petrodollar-rich Gulf countries are feeling the financial strain of the war.
Israel’s strike on Iran’s main gas facility and the US bombing of Kharg Island, the country’s largest oil export terminal, have expanded the conflict to economic targets. In retaliation, Iran has struck energy installations across the region, pushing some Gulf economies back by years.
Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s major power plants drew a strong warning of retaliation, with Tehran signalling it would target similar installations in the Gulf countries. An Iranian spokesman warned of “serious consequences” for any attacks on vital infrastructure, emphasising that such actions would invite a “decisive and immediate response”.
This potential for catastrophic escalation appears to be one reason behind Trump’s decision to extend his deadline. Iranian officials have interpreted the move as a sign that he is yielding to the threat of retaliation.
Trump’s failure to garner support from America’s Western allies for what many view as an ill-conceived war has further compounded his frustration. Nato countries reportedly declined Washington’s request to deploy warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, unwilling to be drawn into what they see as a war of choice — even though they are among those most affected by the disruption of a major global oil supply route. It is one of the rare moments in recent decades when the US appears isolated in a major conflict.
A long-fractured, West-dominated world order now appears increasingly untenable in the wake of the US-Israel war on Iran. What is emerging instead is a more chaotic global landscape. The US has failed to achieve any of its objectives or secure a decisive outcome in this unwinnable war. Trump’s latest claims about peace talks with Iran are seen as yet another rhetorical manoeuvre rather than a concrete diplomatic breakthrough.
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